Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.248361 43.015059 50.493164 59.342388 69.498527 80.759565 94.159129
2024-10-20 28.752514 38.335982 49.984853 65.056743 83.897234 106.516679 135.555967
2024-10-27 20.918938 30.726217 43.612185 61.514164 85.428671 115.926921 157.356279
2024-11-03 17.662293 28.060052 42.599364 63.956300 93.979283 134.052832 190.822267
2024-11-10 15.572499 26.494903 42.611378 67.432822 103.846361 154.310088 228.283349
2024-11-17 13.791906 24.998735 42.367789 70.283885 112.818982 173.742492 265.739614
2024-11-24 11.800868 22.778063 40.633630 70.543782 117.801713 187.637718 296.073047
2024-12-01 9.752718 20.073808 37.703012 68.478215 118.873486 195.648865 318.112764
2024-12-08 8.474773 18.492012 36.371237 68.748072 123.457158 209.040735 348.761289
2024-12-15 7.514662 17.325979 35.572683 69.753575 129.194160 224.439055 383.217104
2024-12-22 5.874729 14.508002 31.399276 64.374527 123.738265 221.626827 388.905854
2024-12-29 5.308355 13.806768 31.076364 65.833259 130.006897 238.047282 425.994230
2025-01-05 4.361888 12.197385 28.976486 64.181739 131.444318 247.882350 455.302190
2025-01-12 4.229699 12.464122 30.771438 70.331010 147.744262 284.370248 531.769541
2025-01-19 3.316836 10.603693 27.765523 66.544721 145.209096 288.098614 553.182088
2025-01-26 3.004428 10.202811 27.886979 69.158117 155.057419 314.305618 614.816638
2025-02-02 2.795621 10.032565 28.503580 72.876369 167.363950 345.715772 687.348776
2025-02-09 2.568642 9.751804 28.806323 75.924329 178.555541 375.747022 759.050146
2025-02-16 2.231512 9.043874 27.932823 76.202118 184.057779 395.443390 813.104473
2025-02-23 1.838861 8.034160 26.098101 73.994095 184.094809 404.661811 848.346715
2025-03-02 1.602407 7.475283 25.356995 74.282597 189.473180 424.510987 904.416720
2025-03-09 1.424003 7.067441 24.959924 75.357483 196.645689 448.299409 969.137943
2025-03-16 1.074611 5.868984 22.035601 69.605560 187.892933 439.467418 970.616817